The Crystal Ball and Global Water Security
Where will we be in 2030? According to the UK Government's Chief
Scientist, John Beddington, we will be in a world that will be
demanding 50% more energy; 50% more food; 30% more water and this
will be against a background of far greater climate variability -
How do we address this 'perfect storm' scenario?
Water is under pressure from many sources, population increases;
pollution; over-use; changing lifestyles and production of goods
which require water. This ever changing dynamic is exacerbated by
climate variability and the adverse impacts this has on the very
countries that under greatest water stress. Water is used most
heavily in agriculture, approximately 70% of the available supply
globally is used for crop production, yet water for agriculture
receives little attention on the world stage and this means that
water policy and food policy are disconnected! Indeed the nexus
includes energy, not just hydropower, or the energy required to
move water to populations but equally crop production, energy used
in farming, transfer of goods and energy in terms of biofuel crops,
the latter competing for water and for land used to grow food.
There is a need to develop a paradigm shift in the way we think
about water and value it as a resource. Water management solutions
should be considered in the context of the entire water system,
from 'cloud to coast'. This systems approach would ensure that all
types of water are considered - green water, which is about 60% of
all rainfall and is absorbed into the soil; blue water, which is
about 40% of rainfall and established itself in lakes, rivers
underground sources and grey water, which is polluted water and
waste water, but it can be re-used. Such an approach is essential
in managing water systems and allows us to consider both
consumptive and non-consumptive uses of water.
Within this context 'embedded water' and 'water footprint'
concepts can be discussed properly. How reliant are nations around
the world on water that falls in other countries? Globally crops
and goods are traded and they all have a 'water footprint', yet
this is not taken into account at trade negotiations or when
economic treaties are being agreed. Water is therefore not valued
properly and the water economics of buying goods from stressed
countries is not taken account of. A particular problem when the
prevailing data shows that over 40% of the world's population
already live in water stressed river basins, a figure that will
rise to 50% by 2025.
The need for a paradigm shift is even more apparent at the
UNFCCC climate change talks where water is given little prominence
in the negotiations, a surprising fact when water is at the heart
of the changing climate, through droughts, scarcity, floods, more
variable weather patterns. Despite over the half the world's
population living in shared river basins, water is barely mentioned
in text related to adaptation. Water must surely be at the centre
of such discussions not on the periphery.
CIWEM together with the Royal Academy of Engineering and the
Institution of Civil Engineers produced a report titled 'Global
Water Security - an engineering perspective' and postulated that in
order to create the paradigm shift in thinking, the following
needed to happen:
- A move to systems based approach was required;
- Water must be at the heart of all government policy at the
national and international level;
- Embedded water/water footprint must be reviewed in a UK context
including businesses and individuals;
- The regulation of the water sector globally needs to be
focussed on integrated water resource management and
sustainability;
- Water must have great prominence at UNFCCC negotiations and
also at World Economic Forum sessions;
- There should be greater emphasis on awareness raising about
water, Blue, Green, Grey components; consumptive and
non-consumptive uses;
- Greater emphasis should be placed on developing better models
of the water system, coupled with improving the data collection
systems;
- New tools and techniques should be developed where appropriate
but there should be better application of existing
technologies;
- The science and engineering institutions and organisations
should ensure that their memberships and contacts are fully aware
of the systems approach outlined;
- Science, R&D in the area of Global Water Security should be
bolstered;
Such an approach will allow for proper consideration of the
water-food-energy nexus in a changing climate.
