Hosted by the CIWEM Central Southern branch
Event description
Between 1900 to 2012 it is estimated that floods killed at least 6.9 million people and affected another 3.6 billion people worldwide. Over the past two decades a number of methods have been developed to estimate the loss of life from floods. These generally take an empirical approach. Empirical models often use regression equations, based on data from previous events. Regression-based methods can provide important insights into flood fatalities; however, the underlying data sets cannot support estimates of flood risk to people for future events and how these can be reduced.
Emergency plans for floods and dam breaks often do not cover the risks to people. The formulation of effective emergency management interventions to reduce flood-related deaths is often limited by the paucity of quantitative evidence on how the epidemiological risk factors can be reduced by improvements in emergency planning, and the lack of understanding that there are tools available to do this.
This talk will focus on a novel agent-based model that has been used to assess how the number of fatalities from floods can be reduced. It will include a number of case studies such as the Brumadinho tailings dam failure in Brazil in 2019, the 1953 Great North Sea Flood which inundated Canvey Island in the Thames Estuary and the Malpasset Dam failure in France.
Open to members and non-members, relevant to anyone with an interest in environmental modelling and aquatic systems.
Part of the CIWEM Flood Resilience digital series
Register for 23 March 2021