23 March 2021
Between 1900 to 2012 it is estimated that floods killed at least 6.9 million people and affected another 3.6 billion people worldwide. Over the past two decades a number of methods have been developed to estimate the loss of life from floods. These generally take an empirical approach. Empirical models often use regression equations, based on data from previous events. Regression-based methods can provide important insights into flood fatalities; however, the underlying data sets cannot support estimates of flood risk to people for future events and how these can be reduced.
Emergency plans for floods and dam breaks often do not cover the risks to people. The formulation of effective emergency management interventions to reduce flood-related deaths is often limited by the paucity of quantitative evidence on how the epidemiological risk factors can be reduced by improvements in emergency planning, and the lack of understanding that there are tools available to do this.
This talk will focus on a novel agent-based model that has been used to assess how the number of fatalities from floods can be reduced. It will include a number of case studies such as the Brumadinho tailings dam failure in Brazil in 2019, the 1953 Great North Sea Flood which inundated Canvey Island in the Thames Estuary and the Malpasset Dam failure in France.
Open to members and non-members, relevant to anyone with an interest in environmental modelling and aquatic systems.
Part of the CIWEM Flood Resilience digital series
Register for 23 March 2021
Darren Lumbroso is a Technical Director in HR Wallingford’s Floods and Water Group. He is a Chartered Engineer and a member of the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management and a Fellow of the Institution of Civil Engineers. Darren has over 25 years’ experience undertaking consultancy and research into flood risk and water resources management, early warning systems, as well as disaster risk reduction studies. He has worked on projects in some 40 countries worldwide, including living for six years in Africa. He has written some 25 peer reviewed journal papers on a range of water and environmental topics.
This event is open to members and non-members of CIWEM.
This webinar will be hosted on the Zoom platform and will be recorded. Please note that registrations will close 24 hours before the event starts. If you have not registered before that time, unfortunately we cannot add you to the event. You will receive an email with joining instructions after you have successfully registered for the webinar and the registration has been approved by our team. If you have any questions about your booking or would like to cancel your attendance, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
Please make sure you add this event to your calendar, all you need to do is copy the body text of the joining instruction email, go to your Calendar, create a new calendar appointment, set the start and end date and time, paste the text and click the "Save & Close" button.
If you have any queries about this talk, please contact Darren Lumbroso at D.Lumbroso@hrwallingford.com.
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