When Scotland runs dry

27 February 2026

Lessons from 2025 about water scarcity in a changing climate must help to shape strategy going forwards, says SEPA’s David Balmford

Scotland has long been regarded as a water-rich nation – a place where lochs, rivers and rainfall are part of the cultural backdrop. That reputation is not entirely undeserved. But in 2025, parts of eastern Scotland experienced conditions that challenged a deeply rooted assumption: that abundance automatically delivers resilience.

The spring of 2025 was the second driest in over a century in parts of the east, following a dry winter and coinciding with record-breaking temperatures that intensified already low rainfall conditions. Rivers reached record low levels and some northeast catchments recorded the highest number of low-flow days observed within a single year. By the end of the season, 292 regulatory notices had been issued to restrict water use, a scale of intervention that would have seemed improbable in Scotland a decade ago.

For communities, businesses and environmental managers who rarely think of Scotland in drought terms, the message was clear: water scarcity is no longer hypothetical. It arrived earlier than expected, persisted longer than many were used to, and affected sectors unaccustomed to managing sustained low-flow conditions.

What made 2025 particularly significant was not only the severity of low flows, but their timing. While water scarcity is often framed as a late-summer issue, emerging after prolonged heat and high demand, in 2025 it emerged earlier in the year. That shift matters because it changes both the operational reality for water users and the ecological risks faced by rivers.

Responding to those risks requires early intervention as well as clear evidence. In Scotland, this role sits with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), which operates a staged national framework for managing water scarcity as conditions move from early warning through to more severe stages. Decisions draw on real-time hydrological monitoring, ecological sensitivity and catchment vulnerability, translating river flow data into clear management triggers.

Collaboration with abstractors is central to this approach. Agricultural businesses, distilleries, public water suppliers and hydropower operators are encouraged to plan ahead by reviewing abstraction patterns, improving on-site storage where appropriate, and preparing drought management plans. During the 2025 season, enhanced in-season communications and sector-specific guidance supported earlier awareness and voluntary action, helping organisations adjust before formal restrictions became necessary.

Where conditions deteriorated further, regulatory action followed. From late August, notices to vary or suspend licensed abstractions were issued across eastern Scotland. Restrictions remained in place in parts of the east and north until October, including in the River Spey. Of the 292 regulatory notices, most affected agricultural abstractors, but the measures also applied to distilleries, industrial sites and amenity uses such as golf courses.

The experience of 2025 highlights why timing and variability now matter as much as total water availability. Winter conditions influence spring and summer flows through soil moisture, groundwater recharge and catchment storage. When winters are drier, or when higher temperatures reduce effective recharge, rivers can enter spring already under stress. That narrows the window for careful management and increases ecological risk.

For some sectors, early-season scarcity is particularly disruptive. In agriculture, it can coincide with planting and irrigation planning. For distilling, it can arrive mid-production rather than at the end of summer. For river ecosystems, stress accumulates earlier and lasts longer, reducing resilience even if rainfall returns later in the season.

This challenges more than operational practice. It challenges mindset. Scotland’s relationship with water has long been shaped by assumption. Abundance encouraged quiet confidence. Water was there, it would continue to be there, and it rarely needed to be actively valued or questioned. Outside of flood events, water has often been treated as an invisible constant rather than a finite resource that underpins ecosystems, livelihoods and economic activity.

Water scarcity disrupts that thinking. It forces attention onto vulnerability and trade-offs. It is no longer just about how much water exists, but when it is available and what depends on it. In a changing climate, resilience is no longer about volumes alone. It is about recognising value early enough to avoid harm, and planning for variability that is becoming more pronounced.

The lessons of 2025 extend beyond emergency response. Water scarcity cannot be treated as an occasional anomaly that sits apart from wider environmental priorities. It needs to be embedded in longer-term planning. This includes strengthening monitoring networks, improving understanding of ecological thresholds and aligning scarcity management with river basin planning, land use change and climate adaptation.

Regulation plays a vital role, but scarcity is not a single-agency challenge. Regulators can provide firm but fair frameworks, robust evidence and early engagement. However, resilience depends on shared responsibility across sectors. Some of the most important changes may be the quiet ones. Adjustments to abstraction timing, investment in storage and efficiency, and planning decisions made before pressure becomes visible on the ground all matter.

For professionals across water and environmental management, the question is no longer whether water scarcity can occur in Scotland. It is what needs to change now that it does, and how adaptation becomes part of normal practice rather than an exceptional response.

These issues will continue to be explored through sector discussions, including an upcoming webinar hosted by the CIWEM Scottish branch examining Scotland’s experience of water scarcity and what it means for climate-resilient water management across the UK. The aim is not to revisit last season’s scarcity, but to build shared understanding about how evidence, regulation and collaboration can support earlier action and better outcomes.

Scotland will face water scarcity again. We need to work together to ensure that the systems, and the relationship with water, being shaped today are strong enough to respond earlier, act smarter and safeguard rivers in a climate that is no longer predictable.

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The CIWEM Scottish Branch webinar, 'Water Scarcity in Scotland: A Regulator's Perspective', will be taking place at 12:30 on 09 March 2026. You can register here. For more CIWEM news updates, sign up to The Environment newsletter.

Photo Credit: David Balmford

David Balmford is a water permitting unit manager at the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and a committee member of the CIWEM Scottish Branch
Claire Tunaley is a senior hydrologist at SEPA
Peter Wright is a water industry and rural economy unit manager at SEPA